30 July 2012 - Trade Ideas

Hi All

I've detailed some of my trade ideas for the next couple of days below.  Remember that it is NFP week this week, with a lot of other news out there as well.  It's good because it can make the market move - but you have to accept that news will either push you closer to your target, or to your stop...that's the way it is.

GBPUSD: Short - Price Action - Inside Bar on daily chart at previous resistance


My entry is below Friday's low, stop is above Friday's high - target is 1.55 for a nice 1.5:1 trade....let's see if  I can't break my duck on non-euro pairs!

NZDUSD: Short - Price Action - Doji at previous resistance

Entry below the low, stop above the high - trailing stop on this one to minimise risk. The spike in volume today demonstrates to me that there is selling pressure in the market here.  If that is true, then the bears were up to the challenge on the day.  I think at least that there will be a pull back there to the weekly pivot, which is why I've targeted that for a 1.2:1 trade.  If this triggers I'll monitor it on the hourly time frame and any sign of a HH or HL I'll close for either a small loss or profit. (Only trade this if it's in your trading plan).

Happy trading!

Monthly Wrap Up - July 2012

Well, my first month of trading cash since I achieved my paper trading goal during the first half of the year.  It has been a month of ups and downs, and I've finished with a (0.25%) loss.  I'm pretty happy with that, mostly because I've been able to secure enough winning trades to cover both my natural losing trades, and the psychological mistakes that I alluded to before.

Here is a summary of my trade performance:

July Stats Number of Trades 19 Number of Wins 8 Number of Losses 10 Number of B/E 1 Average Win 0.88% Average Loss   (0.73%) Month Result   (0.22%)

Open trades at month end:
EURAUD short - currently 5 pips down (thanks to that massive swing after 6pm on friday).

I've been analysing my trade performance this morning and I've revealed some very interesting things about my trading. Being able to do this is one of the key benefits of having a comprehensive trading journal:

1) Apart from one Income Generator on AUDUSD Long, I only made money shorting the EURO this month.  I did so against JPY, AUD, CAD, GBP, NZD.  One learning is that trending strategies are more successful when a very strong trend is in place. 

2) I lost 3% trying to short GBPNZD and 1% shorting GBPAUD on various income generator and price action strategies.  Aside from an error on GBPNZD costing 1%, I followed the rules of my trading strategy on these and I can accept that these are losses within the confines of that strategy.  Finally the market did turn on Wednesday - and is now heading short (GBPNZD). That's the way it goes.

3) Trading in choppy markets is dangerous - look at GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD, trades.  Those markets have been very choppy recently, without clear direction.  I've traded them and I've been burned.

Strategy Review:

It's interesting - as I conduct this review I am seeing more and more areas where I can cut potential losses from my trading.  For example, the power pivot strategy is not one I'm that strong on, and I probably don't have an edge there.  That's 1% I'd have in my account if I hadn't traded it.  Add that to the 2-3% worth of psychological mistakes I made, and you're looking at a solid performance.  

Month Summary and Key Lessons:

1) The time trading a practice account has helped enormously.  My first month trading cash after I'd done my  K2A "training" resulted in a 20% loss. I'm more focused, I trade more like a sniper, and I'm more confident.

2) Leave the phone at home!! I lost a % this month from trading at work on my cell phone...I'M AN END OF DAY TRADER...why I'm even looking at my trades during the day I don't know.

Most of all:

3) Keep trading - keep working - keep learning - and start winning.

Hope you guys enjoyed reading this - I've enjoyed putting it together, and it's been bloody interesting taking a step back and looking at what I've done.

Goals for August:

1) Achieve a 5% gain for the month

2) Implement my new risk management policy, to never have more than 2% of my account at risk in any week, and (hopefully it doesn't come to this) to switch to paper trading in any month that I'm down 6%.

3) To make sure I don't get caught out trying to pick the top of any EURUSD or related pair rally.  I made money from the EURO in July, let's not give it back in August.

Trading Update - Thursday 26 July 2012

Open Trades:
EURJPY Short: Still sitting in this one, although my unrealised profit is now .6% I've locked in .4% of that with my stop, so there's no real reason to close the trade as if my stop gets hit it won't cost much.  On the other hand, it's a nice hedge against the other trades I discuss below.

EURCAD & EURAUD short: Both of these met my trading plan requirements overnight.  They are in a strong down trend, and showed high test bars within the range of the 5ema and below the twenty ema.  The momentum is to the downside and my entries were at the low of Wednesday's daily bar, stop above the high.    Target is 1.5% on these and I hope to have them closed by the weekend.

AUDUSD Long: Traded AUDUSD long with an entry above the high of Tuesday's hammer bar on the daily.  AUDUSD is looking bullish, and while it is clearly quite volatile, I think the strong bull action on Wednesday will continue until at least the recent higher high from July 20. Target for this trade is those highs.

Happy trading!!

Every day I'm strugg-i-lin (25 July 2012)

Shuff-I-lin would also be appropriate ... but unlike the catchy tune, this type of shuffling ain't so fun.

I seem to be coming up with one or two decent trades each week, and fair being fair I also have a loss or two and that has netted a small gain in the past few weeks. But I'm in the red, one percent...and why!!! Because I also make a psychology mistake each week.

Today I tried to fade a spike on euro, but that isn't in my plan, I don't have an edge there. Why do I do that....impatience I think. 1% a week feels too slow.

But a 50% year would be awesome! I must focus on that.

Trading psychology...do you ever read a trading psychology book and feel like you didn't learn any new theory. I know all this stuff...the issue is in acting upon it.

What do you guys do to keep focussed?

Trading and Life Update 24 July 2012

Hey Ho
Hope you're all loving life and trading.  Here's a quick update - I'd also love to hear some comments or feedback on the blog.  We're starting to generate some decent traffic now so it would be great to hear from you.

Trading:
EURJPY - banked 1% and open 1%
AUDCAD - closed at break even  - unfortunately the market turned against us after a very promising start to  the trade.  We had a shooting star formation at the close of yesterday, and were in the trade and in profit. However, the market is a mean machine and it turned against - luckily I'd moved my stop to B/E as I knew this trade was speculative in the first place.

Orders:
EURAUD short: Price action shows an inside hanging man bar, at the weekly pivot which hasn't been broken for two months. I have a short order in place, at the break of the low of 24 July daily bar.

AUDUSD long: Pretty much the same trade as above, and once one of these triggers I'll probably take the other order off. I don't want too much exposure to the AUD given the current risk off position in the market.

Watchlist:

As you know, I only trade End of Day, so all these are EOD trades on Daily bars.AUDCAD - wait for break and retest of 1.0500 level to go long
EURNZD - reversion to 20 ema in strong down trend. Short opp.
GBPAUD - reversion to 20 ema in strong down trend = short opp
NZDUSD - short opportunity if monthly pivot broken and retested
USDCAD - short off monthly pivot

Life:


Tonight I went to an introductory concert for a new artist named Emilia Mitiku. http://emiliamitiku.com/
She had a wonderful bluesy, soulful voice and I'd recommend buying her single Lost in you.  Also really looking forward to the Olympics in London - I have a few tickets to various events.

Good luck with your trading, and keep loving life!!

Trading Update - 23 July 2012

I'll post my watchlist tonight, but here is a quick update on the trades I'm in:

Traded AUDCAD short last night, off significant resistance level:

It triggered over night - trade is currently bouncing around break even.  I'm looking for a push to the shortside, and once I get it, I'll move stop to B/E around .5% up, then trail quite aggressively on the 4hr chart by placing it behind each lower high.

Other trades:
EURJPY - currently 1.5% up after strong moves Friday and today.
GBPNZD - currently 1% down after a strong move today.

Happy trading

Trading & Life 19 July 2012

Trading:

Do you ever feel that trading is a bit like punting a boat, when you've never punted a boat before? You go side to side, crossing the river back and forth, gradually heading in the direction you're intending...the odd time you get pushed backwards by the current.  I took solace in this analogy, when I saw a man punting up the river in a straight line - sure he looked like he was working hard, but it looked like fun, and you could tell he was going to reach his goal.  What is the difference between him and me? He's put in the time, practice, and dedication to get there...and I'm on my path to do the same.

I've been trading cash now for three weeks.  I had agreed with myself that if I traded a practise account from $42k, which was where I had drawn it down to, back to $50k, I could commence cash trading again.  IT took me 3 months of diligent trading, journaling, and learning.  But I did it, achieving an $8k gain (19%) in three months.  I was stoked with that, and it taught me a lot:

1) Gradually build your account, through incremental gains over the long term
2) The value of a trade journal, and the value of self criticism and recording your successes and failures
3) MOST IMPORTANTLY - that I can be profitable over the long term.

I'm trading cash now, and I've set a goal of 2% account gain per week.  I'm tracking that on a weekly basis.  My weekly routine involves a weekly review on Sunday, firstly of my own trades from the previous week, and secondly to try to identify turning points in the market.  During the week I trade End of Day, journaling all of my trades.

Each week I'll post my trades, and my results.  I'll also post my trade ideas as often as possible.  I'd enjoy hearing your feedback and comments.  There are so many trading websites, blogs, news sites etc out there.  I hope I can deliver more in this blog than trading...there is more to LIFE!

Reading this week:
Trading in the Zone: Re-reading trading in the zone this week...it's the best book I've come across and is a constant reminder of what is going on in my head!!

Active Trades:


Short GBPNZD - high test bar off previous resistance and 50 fib line on 18 July 2012.  Entered by order at the low of the daily bar, which was broken today.  Currently in retracement as I write, but establishing a lower high on lower Low and looking like a Lower High on smaller time frames so it is looking promising.

Short EURJPY - Inside bar 18 July 2012 daily, entered at the low, stop above the high.  Fundamentals and technicals support this trade, with the Eurozone crises still creating a lot of downward momentum in the market.  No target as yet, but will trail stop using the high of each two consecutive seller bars on the daily chart.

Life:


 I also want to share a bit of my life.  My life is not defined by trading, it is defined by the people who inhabit it and the things that I do.

We started a new basketball season this week, with a tough loss of 7 points after playing well and entering the half time break with a lead.  My other team has a semi-final tonight, so hopefully we'll be playing for the silverware next week.  We beat this time last week, in the final game of the Reg. Season, so hopefully we'll do it again.  Finally, the US Men's team is playing in Manchester tonight - should be a hiding but great to see the British guys facing the worlds best.

I'm also week three into my new job - loving it, and heading out to Romania in a couple weeks to meet my team out there.  It should be a blast!

Life is going great - my wife's parents are arriving for the Olympics shortly, and we have tickets to several events.

I'm looking forward to a great week!!