GBPNZD: Short Trade 27.8.12

Now, if you've been following my blog since the beginning you'll know that GBPNZD owes me some money Yo! No hard feelings at all, but I think I might have found a way to get it back.

GBPNZD is in a strong down trend on the daily, and if you look to the weekly for bias you'll see that unlike GBPAUD, GBPNZD has not yet hit the bottom of its range.  I.e. It has room to go before we get a strong bias to the upside.

Check out the below daily chart.  I see a high test bar from Friday, at the monthly pivot, at the 61.8% fib retracement from the July to august leg down.  Talk about confluent factors!!

Better yet, we've got some hidden bearish divergence signalling a continuation from this level.

Trade details:
Short at 1.9453
Stop at 1.9595 (10 pips above yesterday's high test bar)
Target at 1.9010 (Conservative target at previous swing low)

Now if the trade goes in our favour I wouldn't take it all off at 1.9010.  I'd be targeting the bottom of the range at 1.8633 with the remaining 1/3rd of my trade size.